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FX Trends: When FX markets price little policy uncertainty…

25 February 2025

Key takeaways

  • The USD no longer exhibits a premium amid trade policy uncertainty
  • But this creates asymmetric USD upside around upcoming tariff deadlines
  • The CAD and EUR look vulnerable to renewed concerns about US trade policy

Our tactical view

Table of tactical views where a currency pair is referenced (e.g. USD/JPY):An up (⬆) / down (⬇) / sideways (➡) arrow indicates that the first currency quotedin the pair is expected by HSBC Global Research to appreciate/depreciate/track sideways against the second currency quoted over the coming weeks. For example, an up arrow against EUR/USD means that the EUR is expected to appreciate against the USD over the coming weeks. The arrows under the “current” represent our current views, while those under “previous” represent our views in the last month’s report.

Note: ^DXY = US Dollar Index, is an index (or measure) of the value of the USD against major global currencies, including the EUR, JPY, GBP,CAD, SEK and CHF. Source: HSBC

FX Data Snapshot

Related insights

 

The USD’s strength has ebbed lately, with the DXY converging with its rate differential…[24 Feb]

 

Tariff headlines appear to be less provocative for FX markets. [17 Feb]

 

The Fed held rates unchanged, while both the ECB and the BoE lowered their key rates by…[10 Feb]

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