Key takeaways
- The broad USD is likely to consolidate over the near term, as a lot of news is now in the price.
- December central bank meetings hold scope for surprises…
- …but in the end may not appear, which is why many G10 currencies may lapse into inertia.
Our tactical view
Table of tactical views where a currency pair is referenced (e.g. USD/JPY):An up (⬆) / down (⬇) / sideways (➡) arrow indicates that the first currency quotedin the pair is expected by HSBC Global Research to appreciate/depreciate/track sideways against the second currency quoted over the coming weeks. For example, an up arrow against EUR/USD means that the EUR is expected to appreciate against the USD over the coming weeks. The arrows under the “current” represent our current views, while those under “previous” represent our views in the last month’s report.
USD
While we think the case for USD strength through 2025 is robust (please refer to FX Viewpoint “USD: Consolidating for further strength in 2025” for details), the USD may struggle to extend its gains into yearend 2024. There is some uncertainty over whether the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut at its 17-18 December policy, so markets will eye US data releases, like non-farm payrolls (6 December) and CPI (11 December). Markets are now pricing in a c50% chance of a 25bp cut in December (Bloomberg, 22 November 2024), while our economists expect the Fed to deliver its third cut. However, if the cut happens, the decision is likely to come with some hawkish elements, like signalling a possible policy pause. All this could send mixed signals to the USD, which is why consolidation seems more likely to happen in the coming weeks.
Short-term direction : DXY^
Current
▶ Track Sideways
Previous
▲ Appreciate
EUR
EUR-USD has been following closely its yield differentials, so a further move lower will probably require an additional shift in yield differentials. For the European Central Bank’s (ECB) upcoming meeting on 12 December, markets have fully priced in a 25bp rate cut, with a c50% chance of a 50bp cut (Bloomberg, 22 November 2024). With c135bp of easing in the coming five ECB meetings (including the December one) priced in by markets, it will be hard for ECB President Lagarde to “out-dove” markets. Other factors, such as relative economic activity, portfolio flow dynamics, or fiscal policy, could weigh on the EUR, but perhaps more so in 2025. As such, EUR-USD is likely to consolidate into year-end 2024.
Short-term direction : EUR-USD
Current
▶ Track Sideways
Previous
▼ Depreciate
GBP
The UK finds itself between a strong US economy and a struggling Eurozone, leaving both GBP-USD and EUR-GBP testing year-to-date lows. Domestically, sticky inflation is likely to keep the Bank of England (BoE) in a cautious easing mode. Markets see a c85% chance of a policy pause from the BoE on 19 December, which is also our economists’ base case. Elevated UK yields will probably provide some support to the GBP over the near term after dropping c5.8% against the USD quarter-to date (Bloomberg, 22 November 2024).
Short-term direction : GBP-USD
Current
▶ Track Sideways
Previous
▼ Depreciate
JPY
Barring a surprise hike by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) in December, USD-JPY should continue to follow US Treasury yields. Markets price in a c58% chance of a BoJ rate hike on 18 December (Bloomberg, 22 November 2024), while our economists expect a policy pause in December, but a hike on 23 January. FX intervention does not feel like it is imminent unless there is a material overshoot of USD-JPY. Barring an unexpected BoJ hike or FX intervention, USD-JPY is likely to drift sideways in the coming weeks.
Short-term direction : USD-JPY
Current
▶ Track Sideways
Previous
▲ Appreciate
CHF
With its “safe-haven” status, the CHF is likely to thrive (against the EUR) amid the political and geopolitical uncertainties until there is more clarity on US President-elect Trump’s trade and foreign policies. Domestically, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) appears to be more fixated on easing via rates than FX at the moment. Markets have fully priced in a 25bp rate cut by the SNB at its 12 December meeting, with a c65% chance of a 50bp cut (Bloomberg, 22 November 2024). On balance, we expect USD-CHF to move largely sideways, but EUR-CHF may face modest downward risks into year-end 2024.
Short-term direction : USD-CHF
Current
▶ Track Sideways
Previous
▲ Appreciate
CAD
With USD-CAD following its yield differentials, markets will focus on Canada data releases, like PMI (4 December) and labour data (6 December), ahead of the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) announcement on 11 December. The stronger-than-expected CPI data for October has moved the needle towards a 25bp cut by the BoC, but a 50bp cut is not completely off the table, with a 1-in-5 chance in market pricing (Bloomberg, 22 November 2024). We still believe oil prices are largely irrelevant for the CAD, when the fixation on yield differentials is leading.
Short-term direction : USD-CAD
Current
▶ Track Sideways
Previous
▶ Track Sideways
AUD
AUD-USD is likely to weaken through 2025 amid external headwinds (such as potential tariff concerns and softer ex-US risk sentiment). As US policies remain unclear until 1Q25 or even later, there is a limit to how much risk premium markets can price in. On the domestic front, both markets and our economists expect the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to keep its policy rate unchanged at 4.35% at its 10 December meeting. All in all, we expect AUD-USD to move largely sideways around the current levels over the near term.
Short-term direction : AUD-USD
Current
▶ Track Sideways
Previous
▶ Track Sideways
NZD
Like AUD-USD, we expect a downtrend in NZD-USD over 2025, but consolidation seems likely in the near-term. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) meeting on 27 November bears importance, particularly with the next decision not until 19 February 2025. Markets have fully priced in a 50bp rate cut by the RBNZ in November, bringing the policy rate to 4.25% (Bloomberg, 22 November 2024). It is worth monitoring whether the recent rebound in high-frequency data or moving closer to the neutral rate estimates would drive a more cautious easing stance from the RBNZ. New Zealand will release its 3Q GDP on 19 December.
Short-term direction : NZD-USD
Current
▶ Track Sideways
Previous
▼ Depreciate
Note: ^DXY = US Dollar Index, is an index (or measure) of the value of the USD against major global currencies, including the EUR, JPY, GBP,CAD, SEK and CHF. Source: HSBC
FX Data Snapshot
(from close on 26 October to 25 November*)
Heading and description can't be both empty
FX |
Spot |
200 dma |
1-month % change* |
Support |
Resistance |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
DXY |
106.84 | 103.98 | 2.48% | 106.00 | 107.90 |
EUR-USD |
1.0484 | 1.0857 | -2.89% | 1.0380 | 1.0630 |
GBP-USD |
1.2598 | 1.2820 | -2.81% | 1.2500 | 1.2695 |
USD-JPY |
153.74 | 151.97 | 0.94% | 152.00 | 155.40 |
USD-CHF |
0.8897 | 0.8822 | 2.64% | 0.8823 | 0.8928 |
USD CAD |
1.3940 | 1.3679 | 0.33% | 1.3920 | 1.4000 |
AUD-USD |
0.6528 | 0.6629 | -1.21% | 0.6480 | 0.6530 |
NZD-USD |
0.5859 | 0.6071 | -1.97% | 0.5830 | 0.6000 |
FX |
DXY |
---|---|
Spot |
106.84 |
200 dma |
103.98 |
1-month % change* |
2.48% |
Support |
106.00 |
Resistance | 107.90 |
FX |
EUR-USD |
Spot |
1.0484 |
200 dma |
1.0857 |
1-month % change* |
-2.89% |
Support |
1.0380 |
Resistance | 1.0630 |
FX |
GBP-USD |
Spot |
1.2598 |
200 dma |
1.2820 |
1-month % change* |
-2.81% |
Support |
1.2500 |
Resistance | 1.2695 |
FX |
USD-JPY |
Spot |
153.74 |
200 dma |
151.97 |
1-month % change* |
0.94% |
Support |
152.00 |
Resistance | 155.40 |
FX |
USD-CHF |
Spot |
0.8897 |
200 dma |
0.8822 |
1-month % change* |
2.64% |
Support |
0.8823 |
Resistance | 0.8928 |
FX |
USD CAD |
Spot |
1.3940 |
200 dma |
1.3679 |
1-month % change* |
0.33% |
Support |
1.3920 |
Resistance | 1.4000 |
FX |
AUD-USD |
Spot |
0.6528 |
200 dma |
0.6629 |
1-month % change* |
-1.21% |
Support |
0.6480 |
Resistance | 0.6530 |
FX |
NZD-USD |
Spot |
0.5859 |
200 dma |
0.6071 |
1-month % change* |
-1.97% |
Support |
0.5830 |
Resistance | 0.6000 |
Note: * as at 11:30 HKT on 25 November 2024
Source: HSBC, Bloomberg
Explanation of terms
Spot: Spot refers to the current market price of a currency pair that is important for immediate transactions.
200 dma: 200-day simple moving average numberrepresents the average price of an index or a currency pair over the past 200 days.
Support (S), Resistance (R):Support and resistance are significant previous lows and highs plus retracement levels, based on historical price patterns of anindex or a currency pair. Support is a historical price level where a downtrend of a currency pair paused due to demand for the first currency quoted in the pair increasing, while resistance is a historical price level where an uptrend of a currency pair reversed amid demand for the second currency quoted in the pair increasing.
HSBC Positioning Indices
The indicators have been devised to track the net position of momentum traders, looking at hundreds of strategies, operating over many different time horizons. It considers time horizons of 5 days up to 260 days. An indicator level of +10 would indicate that the hundreds of different strategies have all lined up and gone long (i.e., buy the first currency quoted in the pair). Similarly, an indicator level of -10 indicates that all strategies are short (i.e., sell the first currency quoted in the pair).
Glossary
Dovish
Dovish refers to an economic outlook which generally supports low interest rates as a means of encouraging growth within the economy.
Hawkish
Hawkish is typically used to describe monetary policy which favours higher interest rates, and tighter monetary controls to keep inflation in check.
MoM / YoY
Month on month / Year on year
PMI
Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is an indicator of economic health of the manufacturing sector (>50 represents expansion vs. the previous month).
IMM data
International Monetary Market (IMM) is a division of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) that deals with the trading of currencies and interest rate futures and options and the IMM data is part of the Commitments of Traders (COT) reports published by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The IMM data provides a breakdown of each Tuesday’s open futures positions on the IMM. Speculative positions are a trader’s non-commercial positions (i.e. not for hedging purposes).
G10
G10 refers to the most heavily traded, liquid currencies in the world: USD, EUR, JPY, GBP, CHF, AUD, NZD, CAD, NOK, and SEK.
Fed / FOMC
Federal Reserve System (US’s Central Bank)/Federal Open Market Committee.
ECB
European Central Bank (Eurozone’sCentral Bank).
BOE
Bank of England (UK’s Central Bank).
BOJ
Bank of Japan (Japan’s Central Bank).
BOC
Bank of Canada (Canada’s Central Bank).
RBA
Reserve Bank of Australia (Australia’s Central Bank).
RBNZ
Reserve Bank of New Zealand (New Zealand’s Central Bank).
SNB
Swiss National Bank (Switzerland’s Central Bank).
Related insights
FX Viewpoint: USD: Consolidating for further strength in 2025
The USD is likely to consolidate over the near term when markets eye US data releases and…[25 Nov]
FX Viewpoint: JPY: Recovery, interrupted
USD-JPY has rebounded with the market’s hawkish repricing of the Fed, fuelled by the US…[18 Nov]
FX Viewpoint: GBP-USD: Both central banks cut rates again
The BoE cut rates again but lifted its inflation forecasts…[11 Nov]
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